Will the Miami Heat Win the NBA Championship in 2012?
The simple answer is the Heat.
The fashionable answer is the Lakers.
However, there are complex factors at play in the NBA during the 2012 season. One must recognize that the Thunder's chances are somewhat hampered by the Harden trade. Although this trade is not catastrophic, it has disrupted their scheme for at least another season. Yet, for the reasons outlined below, it is hard to see anything but the Thunder making another finals run.
The Decline of the Celtics and Spurs
The Celtics are a spent force, but they are still a solid play-off team. It feels like the golden generation had their last chance against the Heat last season. The same can be said for the Raptors. Great players on both rosters are Hall of Famers, but they are no longer the forces they once were. Without that additional level of quality to supplement the talents of Pierce, Rondo, Garnett, Parker, Duncan, and Ginobli, their chances of winning the championship are slim.
The Potential of the Thunder and Lakers
Instead, one might look at the tough Grizzlies side with a dominant front court. They are similar to the Pistons side that claimed the Championship in the middle of the last decade. However, there are simply too many star-filled rosters to contemplate a blue-collar side taking a 7-game series against both the Heat and the Lakers.
The Lakers Under D'Antoni
Looking at the Lakers, they will be fun to watch under D'Antoni. You would predict that Nash will be allowed a greater role to complement the obvious scoring skills of Kobe Bryant and the front court dominance of Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. Those names in themselves suggest a deep play-off run. However, due to the Nash-Howard acquisitions, they are a very shallow outfit, and the prospects of one or more of their key personnel being injured look high.
The Supporting Cast of the Lakers
A supporting cast that includes Steve Blake, Metta World Peace, and a bunch of no-names will not be able to live with the intensity offered by a young and improving Thunder side.
Other Contenders and Underdogs
Staying in LA, the Clippers still look a little short of toughness despite the brilliance of their point guard play and the star quality of Blake Griffin. The same can be said of the Denver Nuggets, although they have a deep bench, they look too unsure about how they will play from one game to the next under George Karl.
Similarly, the New York Knicks may fall into the same category. However, they are perhaps an underestimated unit. It is only two seasons since Anthony and Stoudemire played some impressive ball on their way to a very successful campaign. Chandler and Kidd, just two seasons removed from a championship campaign with the Mavericks, are sound veterans. Is Anthony as good as Dirk under the gun? Almost certainly no, but they are a dark horse being written off by too many.
Brooklyn Nets are an interesting prospect and I like their chances of making a decent play-off run. However, much depends on Deron Williams and the talk is that he will need surgery at some point.
The Key Player: LeBron James and Kevin Durant
Portland Trail Blazers and Atlanta Hawks are solid teams. But, the league comes down to two of the greatest basketball talents the game has seen: LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Despite the departure of Harden, there is a strong prediction of a repeat of last year's finals. And I suspect, due in part to Harden's trade, a repeat result.
Conference Finals and Championship Game
Conference Finals: Lakers v Thunder, Knicks v Heat.
The championship game will be a showdown between the Heat and the Thunder.
The MVP: LeBron James
Based on recent form and talent, the MVP candidate is LeBron James.