Unsurprising First Overall Picks in NFL History: A Look Back

Most of those first overall picks are totally unsurprising. We usually know months ahead of time who the first pick will be. Names like Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, OJ Simpson, Troy Aikman, Andrew Luck, and Peyton Manning all come to mind as the obvious choices in NFL history. However, history has shown that there are a few instances where the first overall pick has come as less of a surprise due to the circumstances surrounding the draft.

The Predictability of First Overall Picks

To be honest, I think this question doesn’t really hold much weight. Since the 2010s, there have only been a couple of instances where there was even a little ambiguity about who would go first.

Starting with the least surprising pick, the Arizona Cardinals selecting Kyler Murray in 2019 was still a bit of a surprise. However, this was because they had already moved up in the draft to take Josh Rosen in the top-10 the previous year, creating a little doubt. The other less surprising instance was the Kansas City Chiefs selecting Eric Fisher in 2013. While Luke Joeckel was projected to go first more often, the 2013 draft was known for its uncertainty, with Ryan Nassib also being a likely option for the Buffalo Bills.

Past Unsurprising First Overall Picks

Back in the day, it was common for teams to agree to a contract with the first overall pick before the draft began, making the picks more predictable. However, three names that have been consistently atop draft boards were Troy Aikman, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. In fact, Lawrence was predicted to be the first pick the year before he entered the draft.

It's also worth noting that despite the media hype over Manning and Ryan Leaf in 1998, anyone paying attention knew that Peyton Manning was the rightful first overall pick. His great pedigree, maturity, ability, and charisma made him a rare candidate. Can you imagine a draft without Peyton Manning at the top of everyone's boards?

Surprising First Overall Picks

Though less common, there have been a few instances of surprising first overall picks. These picks often come from teams with a specific need or a different direction in mind:

In these cases, the players were selected for their specific roles and needs in the team's development, rather than top-shelf talent that would typically propel a team to success overnight.

Closing Thoughts

The NFL draft is always intriguing, but the sure thing is often the first overall pick. While some names on the board may drop or rise, history shows that certain players and teams always manage to find their way to the top. Peyton Manning's selection in 1998 stands as a testament to the predictability of the top picks, while other picks have come as a surprise due to the unique circumstances surrounding the draft.