Can Roger Federer Win the Next Grand Slam from 2021 Wimbledon?

It is highly unlikely. Although it brings immense joy to watch 39-year-old Roger Federer re-enter competitive tennis, envisioning him winning his 21st Grand Slam title is a tough task for even the most optimistic fans. His best opportunity lies with the Wimbledon championship, which has historically been one of his strong suits. However, the 2021 Wimbledon marks a significant break from his prime form, as he has just returned from knee surgery. Movement, a critical element of his game, has notably declined, which will undoubtedly impact his performance.

The Impact of Knee Surgery and Movement

Federer’s return to play is undeniably a joy for fans, but his recent knee surgery and the accompanying decline in movement present significant challenges. During his prime, movement was a defining characteristic of his game, allowing him to navigate the court efficiently. However, his ability to execute powerful groundstrokes, particularly on his forehand, has diminished due to these movement issues. Federer’s movement has affected his groundstrokes to such an extent that he now shanks a significant number of shots that would have been executed with ease in the past.

While his backhand has shown signs of improvement, with better control and the ability to drive balls more consistently, he has a difficult time letting go of years of instinct and positioning himself towards the backhand side. This preference stems from the fact that his forehand is his primary weapon, and he relies on his footwork to maintain optimal positioning on the court. With knee surgery and a lack of confidence in his knees, Federer is hesitant to move aggressively towards his forehand, especially when faced with powerful, angled shots.

The Serve and Return Game

Federer’s serve remains one of his strongest weapons, particularly on grass. His serve is reliable and should serve him well in Wimbledon. Interestingly, his return game has also shown significant improvement, especially compared to previous years. However, there is a cautionary note here: while Federer’s serve is formidable, the same cannot be said for the return. Novak Djokovic’s serve presents a significant obstacle, and Federer tends to lose easily on points during his first serve due to Djokovic’s impeccable returns. This factor alone paints a bleak picture for Federer, even in the absence of collisions and physical confrontations.

The Draw and Opponent Analysis

The draw at Wimbledon 2021 presents another layer of challenges for Federer. He might face tall and lanky players such as Denis Shapovalov, Karen Khachanov, Adrian Mannarino, or Matteo Berrettini in the early rounds. If Federer can maintain a reliable serve and return game, he should be able to navigate past these opponents. However, one player looms large in the form of Novak Djokovic. At his current physical level, Federer is a considerable underdog against Djokovic. Djokovic’s ability to read and return Federer’s serve is a significant challenge, given that Federer rarely obtains aces or service winners against his opponent.

In a head-to-head match, Federer is at a severe disadvantage. Djokovic’s on-court agility and ability to impart power from both corners of the court mean he can more easily navigate Federer’s strong topspin shots. Federer’s backhand has always been a reliable weapon, but Djokovic’s down-the-line backhand proves to be a potent counter, consistently redirecting shots into Federer’s forehand corner—an area where Federer’s current movement issues are most apparent.

With his compromised knees and reduced stamina, the task of defeating Djokovic becomes even more daunting for Federer. While fans hope for a magical performance to move the tennis world, the reality paints a picture where Federer’s chances of winning the next Grand Slam, and specifically Wimbledon 2021, are slim.