Predicting Messi and Ronaldo’s Goal Tallies at Career’s End

As we near the twilight of two of football's greatest players, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the question arises: how many goals will each striker achieve by the end of their careers? This article explores the statistical and physical differences that might influence their final tally, focusing on their current performance, physical attributes, and team dynamics.

Statistical Performance Comparisons

The current statistics suggest that Ronaldo will surpass Messi in terms of total goals. As of now, Ronaldo has amassed 689 goals, whereas Messi has scored 671. However, it is vital to consider their recent performances and the teams they are currently associated with.

According to the author, Ronaldo's goal tally may cap at 757 goals, which is consistently pointed out as a benchmark to match the legendary Pelé. This figure is based on Ronaldo needing to maintain his current scoring rate for the next three seasons, which is uncertain given his declining physical attributes such as speed and jump power.

Physical Attributes and Performance Decline

Ronaldo's physical decline is a significant factor affecting his future goal tally. He turned 34 in 2021 and has already seen a decrease in his goal-scoring ability. His 2018/19 season with Juventus saw him score only 28 goals, a sharp decline from previous years. His recent outputs with Juventus and Real Madrid further highlight this trend. In the 2020-2021 Serie A season, he scored just 21 goals, trailing behind players like Quagliarella and Zapata. These numbers portray a stark contrast to his peak years when he scored over 30 goals per season.

Messi's Smaller Physique and Consistent Performance

Messi, on the other hand, is significantly younger and more consistent. He has scored 671 goals but maintains a more stable performance, especially in recent seasons. His physical attributes are less tied to his goal-scoring ability, which enables him to remain competitive for longer. His smaller stature compensates with better positioning, a skill that improves with age rather than waning.

The author predicts Messi will surpass Ronaldo's projected goals and even come close to Pelé's historic 757. By the age of 33, he is expected to have scored 785 to 845 goals. This prediction hinges on Messi continuing to break the 40-goal barrier for the next one to two seasons and taking good care of his body.

Considering the potential for a five-year career extension, Messi could even reach 900 to 950 goals by the age of 40, surpassing his current top goal scorer, Ronaldo. Ronaldo's scoring potential is estimated to be lower, with predictions of 715 to 750 goals by the age of 35.

It remains to be seen how both players' careers will unfold. The unpredictable nature of football means their playing times and performances could change significantly. However, based on their current form and physical attributes, Messi is projected to outscore Ronaldo.

For those wondering why Ronaldo might not surpass Pelé’s goal tally, the author attributes this to the fact Ronaldo's career goals are closely tied to his physical attributes, which are on a downward trend. Conversely, Messi's smaller physical build and better positioning make him more likely to score consistently over a longer period.