Fernando Alonso's F1 Return: An Uncertain Future
There have been rumors suggesting that Fernando Alonso has already signed with Renault, but it is safe to say that unless the team performs outstandingly this season, he is unlikely to join their ranks. Sebastian Vettel, another top driver, is also believed to be strongly considering retirement if he doesn't land a drive at Mercedes or Red Bull.
Why Alonso's Return is Unlikely
Alonso's return to Formula 1 heavily depends on driving a competitive car. At the moment, the only teams that could potentially offer this are Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull. However, any other team is unlikely to be in the mix for the next two seasons.
The fact that Alonso left McLaren with a massive contract but an uncompetitive car suggests that money is not his primary concern. What he seeks is a car that he can realistically win with. Additionally, his age and the presence of younger talent like Verstappen and Gasly make it less likely for him to secure a seat at Red Bull or Ferrari.
Team Commitments and Conflicts
Mercedes: Mercedes is committed to Lewis Hamilton, and it is likely that their current set-up will include Valtteri Bottas leaving after the upcoming season. Even if Esteban Ocon is signed, there is bad blood between Hamilton and Alonso, making a potential collaboration unlikely.
Ferrari: Ferrari currently has Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc. Leclerc's performance this season is still uncertain, and Vettel is under immense pressure. If Vettel does not significantly improve, he could be out of a job by the end of the season. Nonetheless, it remains unclear if Ferrari would offer him a position after this, considering their history with Alonso.
Red Bull: Red Bull has Max Verstappen as the top driver, and Pierre Gasly is expected to prove himself. Given Verstappen's star quality and the team's focus on development, Red Bull is more likely to give a young driver a chance rather than bringing back Alonso. Additionally, Honda, Red Bull's engine supplier, might not be thrilled about signing Alonso.
Conclusion
Considering the current landscape of Formula 1, Fernando Alonso's return seems improbable. His best option would be Ferrari, but even that chance is small. As long as the teams he has left have commitments and a clear direction, his return to F1 is highly unlikely.