Comparing Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw: Who Was More Dominant at Their Peak?

Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw are among the best pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball. Their careers have witnessed incredible achievements, but at their peak, who truly dominated? This article delves into the key differences between their careers and evaluates which pitcher was more dominant during their prime seasons.

The Key Differences in Their Careers

Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw have had different paths, with some significant differences in their career statistics:

Durability and Counting Stats

Verlander has a significant edge in durability and counting stats. He has a remarkable 3,163 regular-season innings pitched over 17 years, whereas Kershaw has 2,581 innings pitched in 15 seasons.

Quality and Peak Dominance

When it comes to quality and peak dominance, the evaluation is clear: Clayton Kershaw is superior. Kershaw had at least a seven-year run from 2011 to 2017 where he consistently outperformed other pitchers and was considered the best in professional baseball. In fact, Kershaw won three Cy Young awards from 2011 to 2014 and held a strong claim for four consecutive years.

The purest way to evaluate a pitcher's overall quality is through their ability to limit baserunners and runs. Kershaw's career highlights include:

These statistics rank among the best of all time, solidifying Kershaw's dominance during his peak.

Comparing Career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Innings Pitched

While Verlander has pitched significantly more innings (3,163 vs. 2,581), Clayton Kershaw's efficiency is more impressive. Kershaw generated about 59 wins above replacement in his first 10 seasons, compared to Verlander's 41.7. On a per-inning basis, Kershaw has been more valuable, generating 1 win above replacement for every 35.36 innings, while Verlander generates 1 win for every 43.13 innings.

The Impact of League Differences

One of the key arguments in any "Verlander vs. Kershaw" debate is the league in which they pitched. Kershaw spent his entire career in the National League, where pitchers typically had to be in the lineup. Verlander faced a tougher challenge, but the difference in leagues is not sufficient to account for the significant gap in Kershaw's ERA (2.48) compared to Verlander (3.24) and WHIP (1.00 vs. 1.12). This is further supported by Kershaw's edge in ERA ( 157 compared to 132), which accounts for league and park factors.

Late-Career Renaissance and Peak Strikeouts

While both pitchers are admired for their outstanding performances, Verlander has enjoyed a late-career renaissance, placing top-2 in Cy Young voting in each of his last three healthy seasons. He achieved three top-2 finishes in a row, giving him a legitimate claim as an equal to Kershaw, who also won three Cy Young awards. Verlander also has a higher peak strikeout rate, with 290 in 2018 and 300 in 2019, and five seasons of 250 in total. Kershaw only exceeded 250 strikeouts once, in 2015, when he fanned 301.

However, Kershaw also excels in limiting home runs and walks, with a ratio of 2.2 walks per nine innings and 0.7 HR/9 compared to Verlander's 2.5 walks per nine innings and 0.9 HR/9. The 162-game averages show that Kershaw allows 17 home runs per season and 54 walks, while Verlander allows 23 home runs and 62 walks. This disparity is further reflected in their fielding independent pitching (FIP) marks, with Kershaw at 2.76 and Verlander at 3.36.

Conclusion

While Justin Verlander has been reliable for most of his career and has enjoyed a late-career resurgence, Clayton Kershaw remains the clear winner for peak dominance and peak quality. Kershaw's inability to compete regularly in recent years does not diminish his accomplishments during his prime, and the sheer efficiency and dominance of his statistics solidify his status as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.