Can Clayton Kershaw Reach 3000 Strikeouts in His Career?
Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB) history, known for his consistent performance and dominance on the mound. Over the past few seasons, the pursuit of his 3000th strikeout has captured the attention of fans, analysts, and fellow players alike. This article explores the likelihood of Kershaw reaching this milestone and the challenges he might face.
Current Situation and Career Averages
Barring the short 2020 season, Kershaw has averaged around 158 innings per season since 2016. Over this period, his strikeout rate (SO/9) has averaged 9.92, equating to approximately 174 strikeouts per season. As of the time of writing, Kershaw has 2670 strikeouts, needing just 330 more to reach the 3000 strikeout milestone. At his current pace, it is estimated that it should take him less than two seasons to reach this milestone.
Statistical Comparison
Kershaw would be 35 years old when he reaches this milestone, playing in his 16th season. For comparison, pitchers like Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan both reached 3000 strikeouts in their 16th season, at 36 and 33 respectively. These legendary pitchers continued to pitch for over a decade after reaching 3000 strikeouts, raising the possibility that Kershaw could also reach 4000 strikeouts.
Challenges and Concerns
Despite Kershaw’s achievements, his performance over the past few seasons has raised concerns. Velocity and effectiveness have declined, making it difficult to sustain his strikeout rate. Arm injuries have plagued some of the best pitchers in history, including Sandy Koufax and Tommy John. The decline in Kershaw’s velocity from 2019 onwards has been particularly noticeable, with a 6–7 mile per hour drop over the course of a year.
Some speculate that Kershaw’s decline might be related to missing something in his arm or elbow that was not previously identified. The sudden and significant drop in velocity in a single season is hard to explain unless there was an underlying issue that Kershaw and his medical team might have missed.
Future Prospects and Career Goals
With 2670 strikeouts and 185 wins to his name, Kershaw needs 330 strikeouts and 15 more wins to achieve his goals. If he can avoid arm injuries for the next two seasons, he stands a good chance of reaching both milestones. However, the decision of whether to continue pitching into his 40s is in Kershaw’s hands. Custom press reports indicate that Kershaw is a free agent at the end of the current season, making his decision all the more critical.
Kershaw’s family commitments and the negotiation of his contract might influence his decision. The Dodgers organization, known for its closed door policy with players, must balance Kershaw's personal goals with the team's needs. Whether Kershaw wants to play in his home state of Texas or remain with the Dodgers is an open question, but staying with the team could provide him with an opportunity to achieve both milestones and retire as a Dodger.
Given his history of performance and the team's current needs, it is reasonable to believe that Kershaw could achieve 200 wins and 3000 strikeouts if he plays for another two years. If Kershaw opts for a smaller contract to ensure the Dodgers get another World Series opportunity, the team and fans could have a great chance to witness history.